The federal government is preparing for the weeks of uncertainty that might follow a U.S. presidential election day with no clear winner — by drawing up contingency plans for the border and other issues that might erupt between the Nov. 3 vote and inauguration day in January.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has signalled already that his government has been monitoring the election more closely in the final weeks of the campaign because of its potential impact on the Canadian economy.
"I think we're certainly all hoping for a smooth transition or a clear result from the election like many people around the world," Trudeau told a news conference earlier this month. "If it is less clear, there may be some disruptions and we need to be ready."
The cabinet committee on global affairs and public security has been preparing for various scenarios: President Donald Trump's re-election, a victory by Democrat Joe Biden, or a lengthy period of uncertainty coupled with multiple court challenges to decide the outcome.
A government official (who asked not to be identified because the person is not authorized to speak publicly on the plans) said the cabinet committee is worried about security at the border, the prospect of even higher COVID infection rates in the U.S. and the possibility of Trump taking harder lines on international issues that could affect Canada.
Trump has refused on a number of occasions to say he will guarantee a smooth transition of power if he loses and has been pushing unsubstantiated claims about massive voter fraud during the pandemic as an unprecedented number of Americans mail in their ballots.
Sen. Peter Boehm is an experienced former Canadian diplomat who was posted to Washington during the disputed 2000 election result in Florida between George W. Bush and Al Gore. He said the Canadian government has worked hard since Trump's election to develop contacts at all levels of the government in the United States.
Boehm said those contacts, honed during the prolonged negotiations to renew NAFTA, should help Canada navigate any challenges that emerge after Nov. 3.
"What we've seen over the last four years is greater utilization of the tools we have. What that means is not just discussions at the head-of-government level but with Congress, on Capitol Hill and with state and local government," he said.
"And what that tells us is that we have had to become more sophisticated in our approach, that there has to be consistent contact and a network, because we can't rely on the good-neighbour, best-friend status anymore. And that remains regardless of a Trump or a Biden victory."
The Trump presidency has proven to be an unpredictable dance partner for Ottawa. Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement and imposed national security tariffs on Canadian exports of steel and aluminum.
Trump called Prime Minister Justin Trudeau "very dishonest and weak" in tweets following the troubled G7 summit hosted by Canada in 2018.
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