Will Tariffs Hurt Boeing and Help Airbus?
By Allan W. Janssen
The global aviation market isn’t just about wings, engines, and aerodynamics—it’s also about politics, protectionism, and power. With all the recent “crap about tariffs” in the air again, we’re left wondering: could these trade wars seriously hurt Boeing, while giving Airbus a free ride?
How Tariffs Damage Boeing
1. Increased Production Costs
Boeing relies on a global supply chain. Tariffs on imported aluminum, titanium, semiconductors, or sub-assemblies raise production costs. When tariffs hit suppliers in countries like China, Canada, or the EU, Boeing eats the costs—or passes them on to customers, weakening its competitiveness.
2. Retaliation from Trading Partners
When the U.S. enacts tariffs, trading partners retaliate. In the past, Europe and China have both slapped duties on U.S. aircraft, making Boeing jets more expensive overseas. Airbus, being European, sidesteps that problem in its home markets—and sometimes even in foreign markets angry at the U.S.
3. Risk to Export Sales
Boeing’s business model depends on exports—over 70% of its aircraft go to non-U.S. buyers. Trade friction makes international governments and airlines think twice about big orders, especially when the political risk seems high. Airbus looks safer by comparison.
4. Fallout from the U.S.-China Trade War
China is one of Boeing’s biggest markets. But when U.S.-China relations go cold, China uses aircraft orders as leverage. It delays or cancels Boeing orders—and often rewards Airbus instead. The bigger the tension, the bigger the win for Airbus.
5. WTO Disputes and Global Blowback
Boeing and Airbus have spent decades fighting at the WTO over government subsidies. Tariff escalation gives the EU an excuse to re-engage legally and economically—putting Boeing in the crosshairs while Airbus continues to receive broad political and financial support from European governments.
Why Airbus Wins in a Tariff War
1. Diversified European Supply Chain
Airbus spreads its manufacturing across France, Germany, Spain, and the UK. This makes it less exposed to any one country's economic shocks or tariffs. While Boeing may face steel or tech tariffs from multiple countries, Airbus keeps flying under the radar.
2. Political Support and Stability
The EU backs Airbus as a strategic industrial champion. In a trade war, European governments double down on supporting Airbus through loans, subsidies, and procurement preferences. That keeps Airbus stable even in choppy international waters.
3. Orders from Countries Tired of U.S. Politics
In today’s geopolitical climate, many countries want to reduce dependence on the U.S. Airbus becomes the natural alternative: apolitical, diversified, and reliable. Nations like India, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia have recently shifted new orders toward Airbus for this very reason.
The Bottom Line
If the United States pursues more aggressive tariffs and protectionist policies—especially under a second Trump administration—Boeing could find itself caught in the jet wash of politics. Every retaliatory measure from China or the EU makes Airbus look like a safer, smarter option.
It’s not just about who makes the better plane. It’s about who can sell more of them in a world where politics and trade matter as much as engineering.
And right now, Airbus has the advantage.
This post originally appeared on Allan’s Canadian Perspective and is syndicated on Children of the Divine. To support independent analysis and creative philosophy, follow Allan’s work on Medium and Substack.
