CATCH 22!

 The Ultimatum Problem: Why "Deal or We Flatten Kharg Island" Won't End the Iran War!

Published August 10, 2026

Five months into the Iran war, the most striking thing about American coercion is not that it has been brutal. 

It is that it has been incoherent! And Canadians have a direct stake in that incoherence, because we are paying for it at the pumps without any say in how it ends!

Consider the sequence! The stated objective has been, at various points, ending Iran's nuclear program, destroying its missile capability, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, changing the regime, and... in one memorable formulation... taking the oil! 

Ultimatums have been issued and then walked back. 

A 48-hour deadline over Iran's power plants was postponed halfway through. A "last chance" round of talks in Pakistan was cancelled by Washington itself. 

Deals have been declared imminent in April, in May, in early August!!!

***

Coercion only works when the target knows exactly what compliance buys. 

Iran has never been told!

The cleaner ultimatum — and why it still fails!

So imagine the tidier version. One demand, one payoff, one penalty: return to the terms of the nuclear agreement Washington tore up in 2018, or Kharg Island — the terminal that handles the overwhelming majority of Iran's oil exports — ceases to exist!

This is a genuinely better-constructed threat than anything actually attempted. 

It is legible. 

It offers Tehran something recoverable rather than pure capitulation, which matters, because Iran's stated position is not that it refuses to negotiate... but that it refuses another ceasefire that gets overwritten by the next round of strikes!

It would still almost certainly fail, for four reasons!

1. The carrot no longer exists!

You cannot restore the 2015 agreement. It is legally and physically gone. UN sanctions were reimposed through the snapback mechanism in September 2025. The deal's own sunset provisions have since lapsed. The enrichment facilities have been bombed, and since February the IAEA has been unable to verify Iran's enrichment status or account for its stockpile at all. 

"Back to the old deal" would in practice mean negotiating an entirely new agreement from scratch... which reopens every hard question and takes months you do not have inside a deadline!

2. The threat liberates more than it coerces!

This is the serious flaw. Kharg is Iran's hostage as much as it is America's target. 

Destroy it and the last thing restraining Tehran disappears. 

When American strikes hit Kharg in April, Iran announced immediately that its own restraint on regional oil infrastructure no longer applied!

The arithmetic runs the wrong way. 

Iran exports something on the order of a million barrels a day. 

The Gulf as a whole moves closer to twenty million through Hormuz. 

A regime with nothing left to sell has every incentive to shut the waterway permanently and go after Saudi, Emirati and Kuwaiti facilities... which it has already demonstrated it can reach. 

That asymmetry is precisely why the April strike deliberately hit military targets on the island while sparing the oil terminals!

3. The Gulf states absorb the retaliation, not Washington!

Riyadh has already been pressing the White House to prioritize dialogue and reduce escalation, reportedly out of concern about plans for major new attacks. 

The countries that would bear the cost of calling Iran's bluff are not the country making the threat. 

That is not a stable basis for coercion!

4. Credibility runs backwards!

Tehran's objection is not to the terms of the 2015 deal. 

It is that the United States withdrew from that deal in 2018, and then opened this war on February 28 (Drumpf) in the middle of active negotiations that Oman's foreign minister had described as close to a breakthrough. 

Offering the same bargain again, under threat, from the same administration, reads in Tehran as the identical trap with a gun attached!

Making it credible would require what no ultimatum can supply on a deadline: Ratification, third-party guarantors, escrowed assets, automatic penalties for American non-compliance. 

And every bluff that gets called and then withdrawn lowers the price of ignoring the next one.

What is actually likely!

The realistic path is smaller and less satisfying. 

Iran and Oman have agreed shipping-lane coordinates through the strait... inbound through Iranian waters, outbound through Omani waters. 

Military activity has dropped to give those talks room. 

If that arrangement is signed and the American naval blockade of Iranian ports eases in exchange, you get something workable: Iran exports, the world's shipping moves, and the nuclear file is handled separately and slowly!

Note what that is not! 

It is not victory, settlement, or peace. 

It is a frozen conflict with a maritime truce bolted on, and it can come apart on any single incident... a missile hit a vessel belonging to Abu Dhabi's national oil company just this past weekend, while the talks were supposedly in their final stages!

Why the Iran war matters for Canada!

Here is the part that should concentrate Canadian minds. 

We have no vote in any of this, and we are exposed to all of it!

Gasoline has run well above pre-war levels for months, in a country already in a technical recession, with the federal gas tax pause having made little practical difference. 

Ottawa contributed emergency reserves to the coordinated IEA release. 

The Prime Minister has been explicit that Canada is not participating in offensive operations and never will... while also being clear that he was not told in advance that the strikes were coming!

That combination is the whole Canadian position in miniature: Consulted about nothing, insulated from nothing!

There is a temptation to read the crisis as vindication... proof that Canada should simply pump and ship more, that a supply shock is an opportunity. 

Be careful with that lesson. 

Producers do not commit capital to decade-long projects on the strength of a price spike caused by a war that could end in a signed piece of paper next month. 

What the crisis actually exposes is a structural condition Canadians have lived with for forty years: !e are a price taker in a market shaped by decisions made in Washington, Tehran and Oman!

The durable response is not a bet on sustained high prices. 

It is reducing the number of ways a distant maritime chokepoint can determine what a household in London (Ont.) or Moncton pays to heat a home and get to work... export capacity that does not route through American infrastructure, and demand-side resilience that does not depend on the price of Brent crude staying anywhere in particular!

The honest conclusion!

Nobody has solved the Iran war, including the people paid to! 

Forecasts have been wrong repeatedly: a deal was reportedly close in May, again in early August, and several times between! (?)

What can be said with more confidence is narrower! 

Coercion that changes its demand every few weeks does not produce compliance... it produces contempt! 

And even a perfectly constructed ultimatum runs into the problem that the thing Washington most wants to threaten is the thing that, once destroyed, removes Iran's last reason to hold back!

For Canada, the practical takeaway is not about Kharg Island at all. 

It is that our exposure to this war is a policy choice we made over decades, and it will still be there after whatever ends this one!

---

If you found this useful, you can get Allan's Canadian Perspective delivered directly — subscribe at janssena.substack.com.

TRADE WAR!

Hey folks, wanna read something REALLY funny?

↓

One of these days... (very soon) Canadians will reach the breaking point with Donald Drumpf and show him just how much... "He doesn't need anything from Canada!!!

Forget the oil and the gas, and the potash, and the uranium, and the lumber, and the precious metals... let's just take a look at ONE of the weapons we have in our arsenal!

ELECTRICITY!

The US cities that run on Canadian electricity... and don’t know it!

Story by Trisha A. Ilarde:

Most Americans flip a light switch without a single thought about where that power actually began. In dozens of US towns, though, the electricity humming through the walls started its journey hundreds of miles north, behind a Canadian dam or wind farm. Canada and the United States share one of the most connected power grids on the planet, and 86 international power lines along the Canada-US border move electricity between provinces and states.

This quiet setup worked smoothly for over a century, mostly because the two countries got along. Recent trade fights changed that, putting the hidden energy lifeline in the spotlight as tariffs and counter-threats flew. Suddenly, the idea that a Canadian premier could flip a switch and raise American power bills felt very real. 

Here are some US cities and regions that lean on Canadian electricity far more than the people living there might guess!

***

Burlington, Vermont

©Image Credit: Jared and Corin Wikimedia Commons, Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.

Vermont stands out as the clearest example of American reliance on Canadian power, and Burlington sits right in the middle of it. Hydro-Québec has agreed to supply roughly 25% of the state’s annual electricity needs through 2038, so Canadian hydropower makes up about a quarter of Vermont’s electricity portfolio, if not more. The connection runs through a transmission line linking a Quebec substation to the Highgate substation in northwest Vermont. Much of the state’s clean energy image is actually Canadian-made.

Buffalo, New York

©Image Credit: Tim Gerland on Flickr, Licensed under CC BY 2.0.

Power flows into Buffalo from across the Niagara River, and the city would feel a sudden cutoff harder than almost anywhere else. Buffalo and upstate New York would take an especially hard hit if Ontario restricted exports, since that tends to happen during a cold, peak-demand stretch of the year.

Experts warned that cutting electricity with little warning could cause severe impacts on both prices and the volume of power available. Sitting close to the border makes the city both lucky and exposed. Cheap, steady Canadian power feels like a gift right up until someone threatens to take it away.

Rochester, New York

©Image Credit: Ken Lund on Flickr, Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.

Down the road from Buffalo, Rochester shares the same heavy dependence on Ontario’s grid. One senior energy analyst noted that any Ontario move to restrict exports would fall especially hard on Buffalo and upstate New York, including Rochester. Timing makes it worse because the threat surfaced during winter, when heating demand peaks and the system has little slack. New York as a whole buys more Canadian power than any other state. That fact leaves mid-sized cities like Rochester quietly vulnerable to politics playing out hundreds of miles away.

New York City, New York

©Image Credit: Andres Figueroa from Pexes.

America’s largest city ties into the Canadian grid too, mostly through Quebec’s massive hydro network. Quebec exported about 10.39 TWh of hydropower-driven electricity to New York in 2017, with Ontario adding another 8.22 TWh.

New York State leads the country in Canadian imports, bringing in 8.6 million MWh in 2024, worth $491 million, with 77% of that coming from Ontario. Builders have completed a major project to push even more Quebec hydropower straight into the city. A chunk of the round-the-clock power in the city that never sleeps carries a Canadian accent.

Detroit, Michigan

©Image Credit: D. Jonze from Pexels.

Right across the river from Windsor, Detroit is wired directly into Ontario’s system. The electricity link connecting Michigan with Ontario consists mostly of Ontario exports into Detroit. A twist complicates the picture, because much of that power never stays put.

State regulators explain that plenty of electricity flows across the border into Michigan, yet almost none of it stays; instead, it moves eastward into Ohio and back into Canada near Niagara in a pattern called the Lake Erie Loop Flow. The city acts less like a destination and more like a busy hallway for Canadian electrons.

Minneapolis, Minnesota

©Image Credit: Josh Hild from Pexels

Bitter winters push Minnesota to draw heavily on its northern neighbour, especially the province of Manitoba. Every bit of electricity Manitoba sold to the United States in 2024 went to Minnesota, making the state its only customer.

Minnesota also ranked among five border states, alongside New York, Vermont, Michigan, and Maine, that together accounted for 78% of all Canadian exports in 2024. That dependence explains why Minnesota landed on the list of states facing an export surcharge during the trade fight. The Twin Cities stay warm partly thanks to Canadian dams.

Portland, Maine

©Image Credit: davidwilson1949 on Flickr, Licensed under CC BY 2.0.

Maine’s power story belongs almost entirely to New Brunswick. Every bit of New Brunswick’s electricity exports flowed to Maine in 2024. That single-source relationship means the entire state, Portland included, relies on a single Canadian province for its imported power. New Brunswick’s cross-border electricity sales feed directly into Maine. Residents rarely think about this tidy, direct connection. When trade tensions flared, the quiet pipeline suddenly looked like a pressure point.

Seattle, Washington

©Image Credit: dumitru B from Pexels.

The Pacific Northwest runs on a different Canadian partner, British Columbia. British Columbia accounts for roughly 95% of Canadian electricity exports in the western region, and about 15% of those sales end up in Washington. BC also reaches farther than any other province, selling electricity to 13 states, with Washington as its biggest customer. Seattle benefits from BC’s huge hydro output flowing south across the border. The clean, rainy Northwest essentially shares a watershed and a power supply with its Canadian neighbour.

Great Falls, Montana

©Image Credit: Tim Evanson on Flickr, Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.

Montana might feel remote, yet Great Falls plugs straight into the cross-border grid. Analysts named it among the cities that still benefit significantly from Canadian electricity. Sitting close to the Alberta and BC borders, the region taps Canadian supply whenever it makes economic sense.

Provinces sell their excess power to the south when American buyers need it, and US distributors import it when it costs less than generating it themselves. Those northern connections quietly add stability to a sparsely populated state. Most folks in Great Falls would be surprised to learn how international their light switch really is.

Ogdensburg, New York

©Image Credit: CharmaineZoe's Marvelous Melange on Flickr, Licensed under CC BY 2.0.

Perched on the St. Lawrence River, this small city sits practically on top of the Canadian border. Energy experts specifically named Ogdensburg among the US cities that still benefit significantly from Canadian electricity. Being right at the water’s edge puts it among the closest American communities to Ontario’s grid.

New York overall pulls most of its Canadian power from Ontario and imports the largest share of any state. Tiny border towns like this one often hold the deepest, oldest ties to the Canadian system. The river marking the boundary also carries the power.

Pembina, North Dakota

©Image Credit: afiler on Flickr, Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.

Pembina reaches about as far north as you can get in the lower 48, and its power supply shows it. The city appears among those that still benefit significantly from Canadian electricity. North Dakota receives power largely from Manitoba’s grid, which sends electricity south alongside Minnesota’s supply.

Manitoba exports electricity to both North Dakota and Minnesota through the central cross-border link. For a town wedged against the Manitoba line, Canadian power feels like the neighbour next door rather than anything exotic. The border here works more as a formality than a barrier for electrons.

Boston, Massachusetts

©Image Credit: Phil Evenden from Pexels.

New England’s biggest city has quietly bought Canadian hydropower for decades. Hydro-Québec built a 450-kV DC line in the early 1990s connecting its huge James Bay complex to the Sandy Pond substation near Boston, and it has since delivered more than 100 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity.

That single line has served as a steady clean-energy artery into the region. Hydro-Québec has sold power into New England since the 1980s. Boston’s push toward greener energy rests on a Canadian backbone. The lights of the city carry a little bit of Quebec in them.

Chicago, Illinois

©Image Credit: Wendell Stoyer from Pexels.

Chicago sits inside a larger Midwestern grid that trades power back and forth with Canada. Canada’s main customers include the Midwestern states, fed largely by Ontario and Manitoba. Because the grid stays interconnected, electricity generated in Canada can flow through several states before reaching a given home.

This trade matters for grid balancing, constantly matching electricity use to electricity production across the region. Even an inland giant like Chicago indirectly leans on its northern supply. The grid doesn’t really care where someone drew the border.

Milwaukee, Wisconsin

©Image Credit: Leroy Skalstad from Pexels.

Wisconsin came up by name when Ontario’s premier listed the states he could squeeze. Ontario’s leader said the province stood ready to go as far as cutting off energy flowing to Michigan, New York, and Wisconsin. Milwaukee sits in that same Midwestern grid network that exchanges power with Canada every day.

US utilities import Canadian electricity when they face a shortfall or when it simply costs less than producing their own. Those facts make the city part of the quiet web of cross-border dependence. A trade dispute in Ottawa could ripple all the way to a Milwaukee utility bill.

All the Northern Maine border towns!

©Image Credit: Joe Shlabotnik on Flickr, Licensed under CC BY 2.0.

Beyond Portland, the smaller communities along Maine’s northern edge bind even more tightly to New Brunswick. Because every bit of New Brunswick’s exports went to Maine in 2024, the entire state’s imported power traces back to one province. For these border towns, the Canadian grid often serves as the nearest and most practical source. New Brunswick’s cross-border electricity sales feed directly into Maine. These communities live the US-Canada energy partnership more directly than almost anyone. When relations sour, they feel the chill first. (This is only a temporary situation since Maine will eventually join Canada as one of our provinces!!!)

AND REMEMBER FOLKS... THESE ARE ONLY SOME OF THE PLACES THAT WILL BE AFFECTED! (ALONG WITH ALL THE OTHER PLACES THAT WILL BE PUT IN JEPARDY FROM ALL THE OTHER ECONOMIC WEAPONS WE HAVE AVAILABLE!) 

N.Y.C. after we shut off their electricity!!!

And Another Saturday Morning Confusion:

 DRUMPF WAS RIGHT... HE DOESN'T NEED OUR OIL... HE'S GETTING IT FROM VENEZUELA!

DUMP TRUMP!

Q:  To what extent is the United States dependent on Canadian products? 

A:  Are there any comparable American alternatives to these products?

• America imports 60% of its crude oil from Canada, at an average **discount** of 15%. That discount has applied for close to 4 decades, minimum. Roughly 80% of vehicle fuels used in the US are derived from this CANADIAN-SUBISIDIZED oil. The closest substitute your refineries can handle comes from Venezuela. I’m sure the orange stain won’t mind buying from them at all.
• 50% of aluminum consumed in the US comes from Canada. There are few alternatives as aluminum takes a god-awful amount of electricity to produce. Canada has shit-tons of hydroelectric power that we use to make aluminum.
• That same hydroelectric power generation is so plentiful, that we export most of the rest to the US, which keeps the grids along the east coast and into the mid-west humming. No Canadian hydro means rolling blackouts across a third of the US.
• 80% of potash used in fertilizer is sourced from Canada. Canada is the world’s largest producer, having a full third of global production. The next two largest producers are russia and China, and put together, they produce ALMOST as much as Canada does by itself. You could try and buy half the output from both of them, or all the output from one, I guess.
• Canada exported almost 3–trillion cubic feet of natural gas, which helps keep the Midwest and Northeast states warm and generates a significant amount of electricity. According to your own sources, natural gas accounted for 43.1% of your total generating capacity last year.
• A full quarter of the uranium you use annually comes from Canada. The ore is of unusually high purity too. That’s another quarter of your generating capacity going down, and 18.6% of electricity is produced by nuclear.

In order to replace any of these would require a huge amount of work. 

You could build a dozen aluminum smelters to pick up the slack from Canada alone, but you still need electricity to run them. And you can see the problems with that. 

More pressing is finding new ways to heat your houses, fertilize your fields and afford to drive anywhere. 

The “good guy” discount Canada has been giving the US for five decades is going to end... so you can expect your local gas prices to rise by an average of 15%, regardless of what the orange-stain does now.

M Spicer. 

Sunday Morning Not So Funnies! (Trade War!)

 Short and simple, folks... we're putting a 25% tariff on U.S. booze... and a whole bunch of other stuff... and if Drumpf attempts to raise the stakes again by getting more crazy... we will put a 25% export tariff on all the gas and electricity we send down south!

(OR STOP SENDING THEM GAS AND ELECTRICITY AT ALL...!)

This means the Eastern Seaboard of the United States will be sitting in the DARK... and everyone out West will be FREEZING!

This whole "trade war" thing is akin to a previous American administration's claims of "weapons of mass destruction" ...as a pretext to launch an invasion of Iraq!

This makes about as much sense!

Put THAT in your Pipe...! 

Asshole...!

Saturday Morning Confusion: OIL!

 The United States has cancelled the XL pipeline out of Alberta, depriving the country (U.S.) of enough oil and gas to meet their daily needs......,  so they decided to go to Saudi Arabia for the oil! (Despite the fact that Saudi was behind the 9/11 attack on the States..., and a bunch of other stuff!)

We have banned "blood diamonds" for obvious reasons here in the West..., but there seems to be a double standard when we get down to energy problems kids!

Maybe we should have  look at where our priorities lie!