DUMP TRUMP!

 ALLAN SAID: Sal, it seems like everything Trump does is the exact opposite of what's best for the United States! 

What are the chances he is "compromised" (kompromat) by someone or something?

SAL-9000 SAID: Short answer: It’s plausible that Donald Trump could be vulnerable to kompromat, and there are multiple publicly reported kinds of exposure that make that risk non-trivial... but there’s no publicly released, conclusive “smoking-gun” showing he is actively controlled... or black-mailed! 

Below, I’ll explain what kompromat is, the main public facts and red flags people point to... what they do... and don’t... prove... and a sensible way to think about the overall likelihood!

What “kompromat” means:

“Kompromat” is simply compromising material used to blackmail or influence someone... anything from financial records... to sex tapes... or criminal conduct! (Everything sounds like Drumpf so far!!!!!)

It can be genuine, fabricated, or exaggerated! Wikipedia+1

Public facts and risk factors people point to:

1. Allegations in the Steele dossier — the dossier alleged Russia had compromising material on Trump from his 2013 Moscow trip! (The now-famous “kompromat” claims!)

2. . The dossier is controversial and contained unverified raw intelligence... some parts have never been corroborated... while other aspects... [e.g., Russia-seeking to influence 2016] are supported by later investigations! (The dossier remains part of the public conversation about why people ask the kompromat question!) Wikipedia+1

3. Mueller and related investigations found lots of contacts and attempts by Russian actors to influence the 2016 election, and documented campaign contacts and outreach that raise counterintelligence concerns — though Mueller did not establish a definite criminal conspiracy to... “collude!” 

4. Contacts and outreach make the possibility of kompromat more plausible from an intelligence and tradecraft perspective! (i.e., countries try to collect leverage!) American Constitution Society+1

5. Financial and business ties, and patterns of behaviour — decades of business dealings, opaque financing, and reports by journalists and researchers about ties between Trump associates and Russian, or post-Soviet actors, have been flagged as creating vulnerability! (People with large unexplained flows of money or complex foreign business ties are easy targets) 

6. Investigative reporting has laid out why many intelligence analysts consider him an “easy mark!” The Washington Post+1

7. Personal/legal vulnerabilities (hush-money, legal exposure) — episodes such as the Michael Cohen payments and related prosecutions created documented legal and financial vulnerabilities that adversaries could exploit or weaponize. The hush-money cases are publicly litigated facts! (Cohen’s guilty plea; prosecutions and reporting) Wikipedia+1

8. Intelligence and counterintelligence context — Russia has a long history of using kompromat as a tool: Intelligence services know how to collect, fabricate, or amplify compromising material. That makes the idea plausible in general... but whether they have usable kompromat on any particular high-level figure is an empirical question! Wikipedia+1

What these facts do not prove:

• Public reporting and investigations establish vulnerability, contacts, and allegations, but not definitive proof that a foreign power is actively blackmailing or controlling Trump. 

• Public sources include both confirmed findings and unverified claims! Professionals distinguish between those categories... the Mueller Report... for example... did not conclude there was criminal collusion... though it left some obstruction questions open! American Bar Association+1

How to think about “the chances,” (a practical framework) instead of a single number, think in terms of conditional factors that raise or lower the risk:

• Exposure factors that raise risk: Lots of foreign business contacts; high-risk travel environments; (e.g., hotels where surveillance is known to occur) legal and financial liabilities; prior examples of kompromat being used by foreign services! Wikipedia+1

• Mitigating factors that lower certainty: No public, declassified proof of active blackmail; many dossier claims remain unverified; public denials and investigations that have cleared or not substantiated specific allegations! AP News+1

Put together: It’s reasonable to treat the risk as non-negligible! (i.e., plausible and worth monitoring) 

But not proven by the public record to the point of saying “definitely compromised!” 

Most national-security professionals would say the situation warrants vigilance, intelligence collection, and protective measures — exactly because vulnerabilities and contacts exist — rather than certitude!

Why do people see behavioural hints:

Observers sometimes point to patterns (e.g., unusually deferential remarks toward a foreign leader, public statements that align with adversary interests) as circumstantial evidence that something like kompromat or influence might be at play! 

Circumstantial patterns can be suggestive, but are not dispositive!  The New Yorker

Bottom line: (Practical Takeaways!)

• Plausible vulnerability: There are realistic, documented vulnerabilities (contacts, business ties, legal exposure) that make the idea of kompromat plausible! The Washington Post+1

• No public smoking gun: Public, verifiable evidence that a foreign power is exercising blackmail control over Trump has not been released! Intelligence agencies may have classified assessments; The public record is incomplete. American Bar Association+1

• Reasonable stance: Treat it as a credible concern that merits investigation and continued scrutiny — but be careful about turning plausible suspicion into definitive accusations without hard proof!

If you want, I can:

• Pull together a concise, dated timeline of the most relevant public events (2013 Moscow trip coverage, Steele dossier dates, Mueller findings, Cohen plea/hush-money legal timeline, UK rulings about Steele/Orbis, etc.,) with sources! 

• Summarize what U.S. intelligence/public inquiries have said (and what they have not) about kompromat-style vulnerabilities.

Which would you prefer?

ALLAN SAID: Both!

SAL-9000 SAID:

Got it. Here’s both, as requested—concise and dated, with solid sources.

1) Concise, dated timeline of key public events tied to the “kompromat” question.

• Nov 8–10, 2013 — Trump in Moscow. (Miss Universe) Trump stays at the Ritz-Carlton: Later allegations in the Steele materials claim Russia collected compromising material during this trip... never verified!  (Golden Showers, shady deals, etc!       The Guardian  

• Jun 9, 2016 — Trump Tower meeting. Senior campaign aides meet a Kremlin-linked lawyer after an email pitch that the info is “part of Russia and its government’s support for Mr. Trump.” The email chain is released publicly in July 2017!  Department of Justice+1

• Jan 6, 2017 — U.S. Intelligence Community Assessment! ICA/CIA/NSA/FBI publicly assess that Putin ordered an influence campaign to help Trump and harm Clinton. Director of National Intelligence+1

• Jan 10, 2017 — BuzzFeed publishes the Steele dossier! The memos assert Russia holds “kompromat” on Trump: Many allegations remain unverified or disputed! Wikipedia

• Mar 2019 — Mueller Report released. Finds Russia interfered “in sweeping and systematic fashion...” documents numerous contacts, does not establish a definite criminal conspiracy... lays out multiple episodes relevant to potential obstruction! Department of Justice+1

• Dec 9, 2019 — DOJ Inspector General (Horowitz) report. Says the FBI had adequate predication to open the Russia probe, but identifies 17 serious errors/omissions in FISA filings. (incl. reliance on unverified Steele material) Department of Justice+1

• Aug 18, 2020 — Senate Intelligence Committee (bipartisan) Volume 5. Calls Paul Manafort a “grave counterintelligence threat,” identifies Konstantin Kilimnik as a Russian intelligence officer, and details the campaign’s efforts to capitalize on WikiLeaks: Still no criminal conspiracy finding! Wikipedia+1

• 2018–2025 — Michael Cohen hush-money saga. Cohen pleads guilty (Aug 21, 2018) and is sentenced. (Dec 12, 2018) Trump is later convicted in New York on May 30, 2024 of 34 counts of falsifying business records tied to the same hush-money scheme! (Sentenced to an unconditional discharge in Jan 2025: Conviction under appeal!) These matters show legal/financial vulnerabilities, but not proof of foreign blackmail! NY Courts+3Department of Justice+3Department of Justice+3

2) What official inquiries and public processes have and have not said about kompromat/vulnerabilities!

What they have said:

• Russia interfered and preferred Trump. The declassified 2017 ICA concludes Putin directed an influence campaign favouring Trump; subsequent congressional work largely affirmed this finding! (While later political reviews have criticized aspects of how that judgment was formed.) Director of National Intelligence+2Senate Intelligence Committee+2

• Many contacts + counterintelligence risk! Mueller details extensive Russian outreach and campaign contacts; the Senate Intel (Vol. 5) goes further on counterintelligence concerns—e.g., Manafort’s sharing of internal polling with Kilimnik (assessed as Russian intelligence) and the campaign’s pursuit of WikiLeaks information! Department of Justice+2Department of Justice+2

• The probe’s opening was predicated, but the dossier was problematic. DOJ IG (Horowitz) says the FBI was justified to open “Crossfire Hurricane” and faults serious FISA errors and reliance on unverified Steele material; FBI agrees to reforms! Department of Justice+1

• Some Steele claims were found inaccurate in court. U.K. litigation over dossier passages (e.g., involving Alfa-Bank principals) found certain statements inaccurate/misleading and awarded damages. Wikipedia+1

• Personal/legal exposure is real. The hush-money matter (Cohen’s plea; Trump’s 2024 conviction) establishes domestic legal vulnerability that an adversary could theoretically exploit—again, not proof of foreign blackmail. Department of Justice+1

What they have not said: (Or what remains unproven!)

• No public “smoking gun” of active blackmail. Neither Mueller nor the Senate Intel report, nor any U.S. court, has released public, verified evidence, that a foreign service is actively controlling or blackmailing Trump! The public record supports vulnerabilities and risks, not conclusive kompromat control! Department of Justice+1

• Steele’s most salacious kompromat claims remain unverified! Multiple reviews did not corroborate the alleged Moscow-hotel video; parts of the dossier have been challenged or discredited. Wikipedia

• Later partisan/declassification fights don’t negate the base finding of interference. Recent memos and declassifications have criticized the ICA’s confidence levels and process, but they do not overturn the core, earlier multi-body finding that Russia interfered. AP News+1

Bottom line: (SAL’s quick read)

• The risk that Trump could be vulnerable to kompromat is plausible, given the documented foreign contacts, opaque financial history, and clear legal/personal vulnerabilities! But... the public record stops short of proving he’s compromised / controlled by a foreign power. Treat it as a serious counter- intelligence concern, not an established fact! Wikipedia+1

(NOTE: Anyone who makes any sort of allegations against Trump had better be certain... "ten times to Sunday..." that there is absolutely NOTHING in the allegations... that is not true!!!! - ed.)

SAL-9000 SAID: Here’s the one-page at-a-glance brief you asked for, combining the timeline and the “proven vs. unproven” status!

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Kompromat & Trump: At-a-Glance Brief!

Timeline of Key Events:

• 2013 (Nov) — Trump in Moscow. (Miss Universe) Alleged surveillance at Ritz-Carlton → later featured in Steele dossier. (never verified)

• 2016 (Jun 9) — Trump Tower meeting with Kremlin-linked lawyer after email promise of “part of Russia’s support.”

• 2017 (Jan 6) — U.S. Intel Community Assessment (ICA): Putin ordered election influence campaign to help Trump, harm Clinton.

• 2017 (Jan 10) — Steele dossier published: Claims Russia held “kompromat!” (many allegations remain unverified)

• 2019 (Mar) — Mueller Report: “Sweeping and systematic” Russian interference... many contacts... no criminal conspiracy proven!

• 2019 (Dec 9) — DOJ Inspector General report: FBI justified in opening Russia probe: Identified serious FISA errors. 

• 2020 (Aug 18) — Senate Intel Committee (bipartisan) Vol. 5: Manafort a “grave counterintelligence threat”; Kilimnik = Russian intelligence; no criminal conspiracy proven.

• 2018–2025 — Michael Cohen hush-money saga. Trump convicted May 30, 2024, of falsifying business records; sentence Jan 2025. (under appeal) Shows domestic legal vulnerability!

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Proven vs. Unproven!

Proven / Established:

• Russia did interfere in 2016, with a preference for Trump. (2017 ICA, Mueller, Senate Intel)

• Numerous contacts between the Trump campaign and Russian actors! (Mueller, Senate Intel)

• Financial opacity and complex foreign ties raise counterintelligence risk! (journalistic investigations)

• Domestic legal vulnerabilities (Cohen case, 2024 conviction) demonstrate susceptibility to leverage!

Unproven / Disputed:

• No public “smoking gun” of blackmail or active control.

• Steele dossier’s kompromat allegations remain unverified; courts found some passages inaccurate.

• No U.S. report has concluded Trump was compromised; focus remains on risk, not proof.

• Later partisan critiques dispute ICA confidence levels, but not the base finding of Russian interference!

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SAL’s Bottom Line!

• Risk: non-negligible! Documented vulnerabilities + history of Russian intelligence tradecraft = plausible exposure!

• Proof: Lacking. No verified public evidence of active kompromat control!

• Correct stance: Treat as serious counterintelligence concern... not established fact!

And remember, boys and girls, NOBODY will make any sort of a "kompromat" allegation against Trump... unless they are 100% certain [a thousand times over] ...and can disappear from mortal sight... forever!