By Allan W. Janssen and Sal-9000:
Not always perfectly, not without controversy... but predictably enough that allies could plan, trust, and cooperate!
That assumption is now under visible strain!
Under the leadership style associated with U.S. behaviour, the United States has increasingly resembled what international lawyers call scofflaw conduct: "Selective adherence to treaties, open threats against allies, transactional security guarantees, and routine disregard for norms when they become inconvenient!"
The question facing America’s allies is no longer whether this behaviour is acceptable.
It is how long it can be endured before the costs outweigh the benefits!
Allies Don’t Leave... They Adapt!
Contrary to popular belief, alliances rarely collapse in dramatic fashion.
There is no walkout, no declaration of independence, no televised rupture.
Instead, they erode quietly. When trust weakens, allies hedge. They diversify supply chains. They build parallel institutions. They seek redundancy in defence and intelligence.
Cooperation continues... but it becomes slower, more conditional, and less automatic!
This process is already visible across Europe and the Arctic world!
NATO’s Real Stress Test:
The most important institution under strain is defence... NATO can survive insults, budget disputes, and policy disagreements. (What it cannot survive is uncertainty about its core promise: Collective defence!)
When allied governments begin to doubt whether Article 5 will be honoured consistently... regardless of political mood or transactional demands... NATO does not immediately collapse!
Instead, it begins to hollow out!
European states respond by investing in independent command structures.
Nordic countries deepen regional defence integration.
Canada quietly reinforces sovereignty and Arctic capabilities while reducing political exposure to U.S. volatility.
Canada’s Quiet Calculation:
For Canada, the dilemma is particularly acute. Geography ensures a continued partnership with the United States. (But prudence now requires planning for instability rather than assuming continuity... and what Prudence wants... Prudence gets!)
This does not signal hostility or abandonment.
It signals realism!
Canadian defence, trade, and foreign policy planners increasingly treat U.S. unpredictability not as a temporary anomaly... but as a recurring risk that must be managed... much like climate shocks or supply-chain disruptions!
The Breaking Point Is Structural. Not Personal!
Allies are no longer asking whether one leader is serious. (They are asking whether American political volatility has become structural!)
Once that conclusion is reached, behaviour changes permanently!
Trust is not withdrawn all at once... it is rationed.
Cooperation becomes contractual.
Loyalty gives way to calculation.
History suggests the timeline is not endless.
One term of disruption creates stress.
Repetition creates adaptation.
Institutional erosion creates exit routes!
The Consequence No One Announces:
If this trajectory continues, the United States will not wake up to find its allies gone.
It will wake up to find that it is no longer central!
The alliance system will still exist... but it will route around Washington more often... consult less automatically... and commit less reflexively!
That is how influence is lost in the modern world: Quietly, gradually, and without a formal goodbye.
The real question is not whether allies will say “enough.”
It is whether the United States will notice when they already have!
Allan W. Janssen is a Canadian writer and author focusing on geopolitics, ethics, and long-term global stability.
Sal-9000 is his post doctoral research assistant!
