Sal, if the trade war between Canada and the U.S. gets really nasty, what energy or commodities can we stop sending to the States?
1. Energy: Canada’s biggest pressure point:
- Crude oil!
Canada is by far the largest foreign supplier of oil to the U.S.
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~60% of U.S. crude imports come from Canada
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Much of it feeds Midwest and Gulf Coast refineries that are specifically tuned for Canadian heavy crude
What Canada could do:
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Reduce volumes.
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Redirect new contracts toward Europe or Asia.
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Impose export surtaxes rather than outright bans. (more legally defensible)
Impact on the U.S.
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Refinery inefficiencies and shutdown risks.
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Politically explosive in farm states and swing states.
This is the single most powerful lever Canada has!
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- Natural gas!
Canada supplies:
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~90% of U.S. natural gas imports.
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Critical winter heating gas to the Northeast and Upper Midwest.
What Canada could do:
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Tighten supply during peak demand.
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Prioritize domestic storage.
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Slow pipeline expansions or maintenance schedules.
Impact:
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Severe political backlash in northern U.S. states.
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- Electricity!
Canada exports large amounts of clean hydro power to:
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New England.
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New York.
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Midwest states.
What Canada could do:
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Curtail exports during peak demand.
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Renegotiate pricing sharply upward.
Impact:
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Grid instability.
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Immediate pressure from U.S. governors, not just Washington.
2. Strategic & industrial commodities!
- Uranium!
Canada is one of the world’s top uranium producers.
Impact:
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U.S. nuclear plants rely on Canadian uranium to diversify their fuel supply.
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Subtle but serious long-term leverage.
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- Potash! (fertilizer)
Canada supplies the majority of U.S. potash imports.
Impact:
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Direct hit to U.S. agriculture.
This is a quiet but devastating pressure point!
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- Aluminum!
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Low-carbon.
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Heavily used in U.S. autos, aerospace, and defence.
Impact:
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Hits U.S. manufacturing supply chains.
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Undermines “green industry” claims.
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- Lumber!
Canada is a major supplier of:
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Construction materials.
Impact:
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U.S. housing prices rise.
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Construction slows.
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Builders scream loudly and quickly.
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3. Critical minerals! (the long game)
Canada controls or has strong positions in:
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Lithium. (emerging)
Impact:
Even threatening export controls here gets Washington’s attention fast.
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4. What Canada likely would NOT do!
Canada would avoid:
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Sudden, total cutoffs! (too escalatory)
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Actions that violate WTO/USMCA outright!
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Anything that harms Canadian workers more than U.S. consumers!
Instead, Canada’s style would be:
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Targeted.
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Graduated.
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Legally framed.
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Politically painful.
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Bottom line:
If things got ugly, Canada’s strongest pressure tools are:
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Oil.
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Natural gas.
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Electricity.
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Potash.
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Critical minerals.
The uncomfortable truth for Washington is this:
The U.S. can bully many countries.
It cannot easily replace Canada.
