Actually... We have Trump by the Balls!

Listen folks... if  Donald won't settle down... then we might have to bring out the big guns!

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Sal, where does the majority of the water in the Great Lakes come from... Canada or the U.S.?

Hello, Allan. The majority of the water in the Great Lakes comes from Canada.

Here’s why, lake by lake and system-wide:

The big picture:

• About two-thirds of the Great Lakes watershed lies in Canada

• Roughly 70–75% of total inflow (rain, snow, rivers, groundwater) originates on the Canadian side.

• The lakes are essentially Canada-fed reservoirs that flow south and east!

Lake-by-lake breakdown. (approximate)

• Lake Superior:
  ~65% Canadian / 35% U.S.
  Massive Canadian Shield drainage, very little U.S. inflow by comparison.

• Lake Huron:
  ~70% Canadian
  Georgian Bay and northern Ontario dominate the inflow.

• **Lake Michigan isn’t in Canada, so it doesn't count!)

• Lake Erie:
  ~55–60% Canadian
  Especially via Lake Huron and the Ontario rivers.

• Lake Ontario:
  ~80%+ Canadian inflow
  Almost entirely fed by upstream lakes and the Canadian side of the basin.

Bottom line:

• Canada supplies most of the water.

• The U.S. withdraws more of it. (population, agriculture, industry)

• Which is why binational treaties exist... without them, the imbalance would quickly be obvious! 

If you want, I can also:

• Show who uses more vs who supplies more.

• Explain what happens if climate change shifts precipitation north.

• Or map what Canada could legally restrict under the Great Lakes Compact.

Just say the word!

Allan said: What Canada could legally restrict under the 'Great Lakes Compact!'

Absolutely, Allan. SAL-9000, straight facts, no drama.

What Canada could legally restrict under the Great Lakes Compact

First, one precision point:

Canada is not a signatory to the U.S. Great Lakes – St. Lawrence River Basin Water Resources Compact... but it is bound through parallel federal – provincial agreements! (The 2005 Great Lakes–St. Lawrence River Basin Sustainable Water Resources Agreement.) 

In practice, Canada and the U.S. enforce the same rules!

With that in mind, here’s what Canada can restrict...cleanly and legally.

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1. Out-of-basin water diversions! (The big one!)

Canada can flatly block:

• Pipelines or canals exporting Great Lakes water outside the basin.

• Bulk water exports to U.S. states like Arizona, Nevada, or California.

• Commercial export by tanker, rail, or ship.

Allowed only in extreme cases:

• Communities straddling the basin boundary.

• Requires unanimous approval of all Great Lakes jurisdictions. (8 U.S. states + Ontario + Québec)

➡️ In real terms: This is almost impossible to approve!

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2. Bulk water removals:

Canada may prohibit:

• Large-scale bottling operations.

• Industrial bulk water sales.

• Any removal where water is not returned to the basin.

Even bottled water is legally tolerated only because:

• Volumes are currently tiny relative to the lake volume.

• Provinces retain the right to shut it down.

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3. Increased consumptive use.

Canada can restrict or deny permits for:

• New high-consumption industries.

• Major expansions of agriculture using lake-sourced irrigation.

• Power generation or mining that consumes (evaporates or removes) water.

Key term: “No net loss!”

• Water must be returned.

• Water quality must be maintained.

• Net lake level impact must be negligible.

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4. Water withdrawals during low-level or climate stress periods.

Canada can legally:

• Cap withdrawals during droughts.

• Impose emergency conservation rules.

• Prioritize ecological stability over industrial use.

There is no treaty obligation to maintain U.S. usage levels during shortages.

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5. Navigation ≠ ownership.

Important myth-buster:

• The lakes are shared, but not jointly owned.

• Water within Canadian territory is under Canadian jurisdiction.

• The treaty governs use, not entitlement.

Canada cannot:

• “Turn off” existing municipal water supplies.

• Unilaterally cut off Chicago, Detroit, or Cleveland.

But Canada can:

• Block new diversions.

• Deny expanded withdrawals.

• Enforce stricter conservation standards on its side.

Strategic bottom line:

• Canada supplies most of the water.

• The Compact locks the water in place.

• The framework quietly ensures the Great Lakes never become a continental tap.

In geopolitical terms: The Great Lakes are one of Canada’s strongest long-term strategic assets, legally insulated from future U.S. water scarcity pressures.

If you want next steps, I can:

• Compare legal vs political leverage

• Walk through a hypothetical U.S. water crisis scenario

• Explain why the Compact was written to be nearly irreversible

Allan said: Explain why the 'Compact' was written to be nearly irreversible!

Absolutely, Allan. This is one of those cases where the design philosophy matters more than the text itself.

Why the Great Lakes Compact was written to be nearly irreversible

The Great Lakes – St. Lawrence River Basin Water Resources Compact was deliberately engineered so that once water is protected, it stays protected. 

That wasn’t accidental... it was a response to history, physics, and politics.

Here’s how and why.

1. Water diversions are a one-way door.

Once a diversion exists:

• Political pressure makes it almost impossible to reverse.

• Cities, farms, and industries become dependent.

• Any shutdown becomes framed as an “existential crisis.”

The Compact’s authors understood a hard truth:

You can’t “temporarily” export water.

So they made the default answer no, forever, unless everyone agrees.

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2. Unanimity = structural lock.

To approve a major diversion, you need:

• All 8 U.S. Great Lakes states.

• Ontario.

• Québec.

• Often federal concurrence on both sides.

That’s 10 separate governments, across parties, regions, and interests.

This means:

• A single jurisdiction can veto.

• Future political swings don’t matter.

• No fast-track changes in a crisis.

Unanimity is not about cooperation... it’s about immobility by design.

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3. The Compact is embedded in law, not policy.

This is critical.

The Compact is:

• Ratified by state legislatures.

• Approved by U.S. Congress.

• Mirrored by provincial agreements in Canada.

So changing it would require:

• Repealing or amending multiple statutes.

• Re-ratification across jurisdictions.

• Political consensus during a time of scarcity. (The hardest moment to get it.)

In other words: It’s harder to undo... than to create!

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4. Climate foresight was baked in.

The Compact quietly assumes:

• Water scarcity elsewhere will worsen.

• Population pressure will rise.

• The Great Lakes will look increasingly “tempting.”

Rather than rely on goodwill later, the framers chose:

• Pre-emptive legal restraint.

• Rules that survive desperation politics.

• Protection against future leaders making short-term deals.

It’s a climate-era treaty written before the climate era fully arrived.

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5. Shared water, asymmetric dependence.

Another uncomfortable reality the Compact addresses:

• Canada supplies more inflow.

• The U.S. has more users.

• Future U.S. internal water stress could create pressure on the basin.

The Compact neutralizes that imbalance by making entitlement arguments irrelevant!

No matter who needs the water more later, the answer is already locked in!

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The core design principle.

If you boil it down to one sentence:

The Compact was written to remove temptation from the future.

Not to manage goodwill.

Not to trust politics.

But to make the wrong choice structurally impossible!

That’s why it has held... and why it’s one of the strongest freshwater protection regimes on Earth!

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BUT... YA NEVER KNOW WHAT DRUMPF WILL DO... HE MIGHT JUST SAY "FUCK IT" ...AND TAKE THE WATER ANYWAY!