Happy Canada Day to Donald Drumpf!

On this July 1st. Canada Day... trade wars and tariffs between Canada and the United States dominate headlines... but coverage mostly focuses on a few border cities and major industries... not the states that would be hit hard if Canadian trade and tourism drop. 

Guest Post By Joy Fadogba:

As Canadians reduce U.S. goods and cross-border travel, these states stand to lose the most.

Some depend on Canada for energy and manufacturing trade, while others rely on Canadian shoppers and tourists to support local businesses. 

These ties often go back decades and are stronger than most people realize. Here are fifteen states where Canada matters more than most discussions suggest.

NORTH  DAKOTA:

North Dakota sends a larger share of its exports to Canada than any other U.S. state. Key exports include wheat, crude oil, and farm equipment. Around 70 to 80 percent of the state’s exports go to Canadian buyers, showing a very high level of dependence. 

It also imports large amounts of oil and agricultural products from Canada each year. Any drop in Canadian demand or new tariffs on farm machinery would quickly affect North Dakota’s economy.

This dependence is not new, but it is often overlooked in national discussions about trade. The state’s small population means it gets less media attention. Farmers and equipment dealers have long-standing business ties with buyers in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. When trade tensions rise, the effects are often felt first in cities like Fargo and Grand Forks, not in national headlines.

MONTANA:

Montana imports a very large share of its goods from Canada, with some estimates placing it above 90 percent. Much of this is crude oil from Alberta, which is processed in Montana’s refineries and used for fuel across the region. The state’s economy is closely tied to this energy supply, even if it receives little national attention. Any disruption in Canadian oil shipments could quickly raise fuel prices and affect refinery operations.

Montana also relies on trade and travel across its long border with Alberta and Saskatchewan. Ranchers, grain producers, and energy workers depend on stable cross-border links. Canadian tourism and shopping help support small border towns, and declines in visits are often felt in local businesses. Overall, Montana’s economy is more connected to Canada than most national discussions suggest.

MICHIGAN:

Michigan has long been Canada’s largest trading partner among U.S. states, with the auto industry at the center of that relationship. Parts, vehicles, and components often cross the Detroit–Windsor corridor multiple times before a car is finished, closely linking Michigan and Ontario. 

Billions of dollars in goods move through crossings like the Ambassador Bridge each year, supporting many manufacturing jobs on both sides. Tariffs on auto parts could raise costs and slow production across the supply chain.

Michigan’s connection to Canada is large and long-standing, dating back to the early auto industry. The state has also seen fewer Canadian tourists, including shoppers and short-term visitors. This adds pressure to an already sensitive manufacturing sector.

OHIO:

Ohio ranks among the largest state economies in the U.S., and its exports to Canada regularly exceed twenty billion dollars. Much of this comes from the auto industry and related manufacturing links with Ontario. 

Metal products and auto parts cross the border to support assembly plants in Canada, reflecting longstanding production partnerships. 

Ohio also imports large amounts of Canadian goods, keeping trade active in both directions.

Because Ohio is not a border state, its ties to Canada are often overlooked. Many suppliers depend on stable trade rules to maintain steady production schedules. Tariff disputes can disrupt just-in-time manufacturing systems that have developed over decades. As a result, Canada–U.S. trade has a major impact on Ohio’s broader manufacturing economy.

MAINE:

Maine sends close to half of its exports to Canada and also imports a similar share of its goods from across the border, making it one of the most Canada-linked states in the U.S. 

Seafood like lobster and fish moves regularly between Maine and Atlantic Canada, reflecting long-standing coastal trade. 

The state has also seen fewer Canadian visitors in recent years, with land crossings dropping and affecting local spending. Border-area shops and hotels have felt this decline in tourism.

Maine’s economy has long depended on its close connection to New Brunswick and Quebec, a relationship that goes back decades. 

Small border towns that rely on tourism and cross-border shopping are especially affected when travel slows. Business owners in these areas have reported quieter seasons and reduced weekend traffic. 

Despite this, Maine’s strong reliance on Canada is often overlooked in national discussions.

VERMONT:

Vermont sends about 40 percent of its exports to Canada and imports nearly 70 percent of its goods from there, making it highly dependent on cross-border trade for its size. (Because the state’s economy is small, even small changes in trade can have a big impact on jobs and local businesses!)

Vermont also imports specialty goods such as chocolate and cocoa from Canada, indicating a more specific trade link than most people realize. 

Ski resorts and border towns rely heavily on Canadian tourists during the winter too!

Recent data shows a drop in Canadian crossings, with passenger traffic falling by over 25 percent compared to the previous year. Ski towns that depend on weekend visitors from Quebec have seen fewer bookings and quieter resorts. Local businesses near the border are worried about long-term effects if travel does not recover. Overall, Vermont’s strong reliance on Canada makes it especially exposed to trade and tourism changes.

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

New Hampshire imports a large share of its goods from Canada, with energy products such as oil accounting for much of that trade. Cross-border trade is an important part of the state’s economy, especially in northern areas. 

The state’s lack of a general sales tax has also long attracted Canadian shoppers seeking lower prices, thereby supporting local retail businesses. Recent data suggests Canadian visits have dropped by about a third, reducing spending in border communities.

Retail and liquor stores in New Hampshire have historically relied on Canadian shoppers, especially those from Quebec. Many businesses near highways and border routes were built around this steady traffic. 

With fewer visitors due to trade tensions and travel changes, some of these stores are seeing noticeable declines in sales. This dependence on cross-border shopping is often overlooked outside local economic discussions.

SOUTH DAKOTA:

South Dakota sends a large share of its exports to Canada, with estimates often near 40 percent of total export activity. Most of this trade comes from agriculture, including livestock and grain products. 

The state also imports a notable amount of goods from Canada, keeping trade active in both directions. (Because South Dakota is small and rural, this dependence is often overlooked in national trade discussions!)

Farmers and producers have built long-term relationships with Canadian buyers, especially in grain and livestock markets. Tariffs or trade disputes could disrupt these links while farmers already face pressure from changing commodity prices. 

Agricultural cooperatives have also raised concerns about losing market share to other countries if trade weakens. Overall, South Dakota’s reliance on Canada is significant... but rarely highlighted!

IDAHO:

Idaho has seen a noticeable drop in Canadian visitors in recent years, with crossings falling by more than a quarter in some reports. This has affected border communities and mountain recreation areas that depend on road trip tourism, leading to fewer bookings in hotels, restaurants, and ski lodges. 

Idaho also has agricultural trade with Canada, including imports of seeds and farming inputs that support its large farming sector. 

Together, these links make the state more exposed than its inland location might suggest.

Idaho’s tourism economy relies heavily on repeat visitors, and Canadians have long been an important part of that market in both winter and summer seasons. When trade tensions or political issues discourage travel, small mountain towns feel the impact first. 

Local businesses have reported quieter seasons and reduced spending from visitors. Despite this, Idaho is rarely included in national discussions about Canada–U.S. trade.

WASHINGTON:

Washington has seen a sharp drop in Canadian crossings, with passenger traffic falling by about a quarter along the I-5 corridor. Border towns like Bellingham, which rely on day trips for shopping and tourism, have felt the decline in local spending. 

The state also trades agricultural goods with Canada, including produce and processed foods. This makes the border region sensitive to changes in trade and travel.

Bellingham’s retail sector has long depended on Canadian shoppers buying groceries, gas, and other goods. With fewer visitors, local businesses are seeing weaker sales and less foot traffic. 

Community leaders are concerned about long-term impacts if travel does not recover. Washington’s border economy is often overlooked in wider trade discussions.

WEST VIRGINIA:

West Virginia sends roughly half of its exports to Canada, a high share for a non-border state with little national attention on this issue. Much of this trade includes energy and industrial goods tied to the state’s resource-based economy. 

This level of dependence puts it in the same range as much larger trading states. (Many residents outside the business sector are likely unaware of how important Canada is to its export market!)

This reliance has grown over time as North American energy and supply chains became more connected. With an already challenged economy, the state has a limited ability to absorb higher costs from tariffs or trade disruptions. Industry groups have raised concerns about potential job impacts if tensions continue!

ILLINOIS:

Illinois imports more goods from Canada than almost any other U.S. state, making it a major entry point for Canadian products. These imports include energy, machinery, and manufactured goods that support the state’s large industrial economy. 

Illinois has also experienced some decline in Canadian tourism and spending, adding pressure to local businesses. (Because of the scale of trade, any disruption can affect the wider regional economy!)

Chicago’s role as a major transport and logistics hub makes Illinois a key gateway for goods moving across North America. Rail lines and distribution centers across the state depend on stable trade flows to operate efficiently. 

Tariffs or prolonged trade disputes could slow these supply chains beyond Illinois itself. Despite this, Illinois is often left out of discussions about Canada–U.S. trade.

PENNSYLVANIA:

Pennsylvania has seen a slowdown in Canadian tourism as part of a broader drop in cross-border travel. The state also maintains a significant trade relationship with Canada, including energy, machinery, and manufactured goods moving in both directions. 

While Canada makes up a smaller share of Pennsylvania’s overall economy than in border states, the total trade value is still large. This mix of trade and tourism exposure is often overlooked compared to its scale.

Western Pennsylvania’s steel and manufacturing industries have long worked with Canadian partners, especially in Ontario. These supply chain links are often underreported because the state is not usually seen as a major Canada–U.S. trade hub. 

Tourism businesses have also noticed fewer Canadian visitors in recent years.

TEXAS:

Texas runs a trade surplus with Canada, exporting close to twenty billion dollars worth of goods while importing slightly less. 

While its economy is more closely tied to Mexico overall, Canada is still a major trading partner in absolute terms. 

Energy and refining play a key role in this relationship, reflecting Texas’s position as a major oil and gas producer. 

Because of the state’s size and diversified economy, its exposure to Canada often receives less attention.

Texas is better able to absorb trade disruptions than smaller states, but it is not unaffected. Energy companies and suppliers that operate across the border have raised concerns about higher costs linked to tariffs. The impacts are often less visible in statewide figures, which can hide pressure in specific industries. (Texas’s trade ties with Canada are often overshadowed by its much larger economic relationship with Mexico!)

NEW YORK:

New York has one of the largest trade relationships with Canada, supported by its size, population, and close ties with Ontario and Quebec. Its exports include agricultural goods, along with a wide range of industrial and manufactured products. Northern border communities have also seen fewer Canadian visitors as cross-border shopping and travel slow down. This mix of trade and tourism gives New York a broad but often overlooked stake in the relationship.

Upstate border towns have long depended on Canadian shoppers and travellers, similar to communities in Vermont and New Hampshire. 

As travel declines, these areas are feeling quieter business activity and reduced spending. Because New York is such a large state, national attention often focuses on other parts of its economy. As a result, its northern border region is often overlooked in Canada–U.S. trade discussions.

BONUS: How Canada’s travel boycott quietly erased billions from the U.S. economy.